Dilin Wu
Research Strategist
Most recent articles
Gold Outlook: Geopolitics and Rate Expectations Drive Price Action, $4,660 as Key Pivot
Amid uncertain geopolitical developments and a hawkish shift in rate expectations, gold volatility has risen, with $4,660 potentially serving as a short-term pivot. This week, traders will closely monitor Middle East developments, the FOMC minutes, and March U.S. CPI data, which could steer near-term gold movements.
Ceasefire Expectations Boost Gold Bulls, March NFP Could Trigger Volatility
Rising ceasefire expectations in the Middle East have fueled a rebound in gold, with prices breaking above the key $4,660 resistance level. However, geopolitical uncertainty remains, and markets are closely watching Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which could act as a key catalyst for heightened volatility.
Gold Outlook: Inflation Pressure vs Recession Concerns – Nonfarm Report Could Trigger Volatility
Gold has been trading in a range, weighed down by a stronger dollar and some passive selling, while lingering recession concerns have offered support. This week, U.S. nonfarm payrolls, ISM PMIs, and Fed commentary could trigger heightened volatility, making careful position management crucial for traders.
Oil Pullback Limited: Cautious Take on De-escalation, Two Key Scenarios in Focus
Trump signals a softer stance on geopolitical tensions, yet oil has not seen sustained selling. Markets are closely watching Strait of Hormuz flows and negotiation progress, actively pricing in two key scenarios. In a high-volatility environment, positioning remains critical, with divergence across crude benchmarks worth monitoring.
Gold Outlook: Inflation and Rate Expectations Drive Trading, Geopolitical Risks Remain Key
Gold falls 10% in a single week as trading logic shifts from safe-haven demand to inflation and interest rates. Rising oil prices push inflation expectations higher, while higher real yields and tightening liquidity weigh on prices. Geopolitical developments continue to be a key factor for the market.
Gold Falls Below $5,000: Safe-Haven Logic Takes a Back Seat as Inflation Hedging Drives the Market
Escalating geopolitical tensions failed to lift gold, which fell 3.7% in a single day, breaking the $5,000 mark. Long liquidations, delayed rate cut expectations, and a stronger dollar coincided, shifting the market focus from safe-haven buying to inflation hedging, potentially amplifying short-term volatility.
Gold Outlook: $5,000 Key Level in Focus as Geopolitics and Fed Meeting Drive Markets
Strong dollar and leveraged long liquidations pressure gold, while institutional and central bank buying provide support. Holding $5,000 is critical for near-term direction, but escalating geopolitical tensions or a hawkish Fed could trigger greater volatility.
Bitcoin Tests $70,000: High-Beta Behavior Persists, Institutional Funds Remain Key
Bitcoin is once again challenging the $70,000 level, showing short-term behavior more akin to a high-beta risk asset. Price support comes from institutional inflows, futures leverage, and its correlation with the dollar, but miner selling pressure, geopolitical risks, and regulatory uncertainty remain key market concerns.
China Lowers 2026 GDP Target: Policy Focus Shifts to Structural Upgrades and Market Repricing
China sets 2026 GDP target at 4.5%–5%, emphasizing structural upgrades, tech innovation, and boosting domestic demand. Short-term market volatility is manageable, but policy execution, property sector pressures, and external risks warrant attention.
KOSPI & Nikkei Plunge: Concentrated Bulls and Elevated Energy Drive Sell-Off
Heightened Middle East tensions combined with soaring energy prices have triggered sharp declines across Asian stock indices. KOSPI and the Nikkei have both retraced more than 10% from their late-February highs. Concentrated bullish positions and simultaneous equity-currency pressures have intensified selling, keeping risk management top of mind for traders in the near term.
Gold Outlook: Risk Premiums Rise Amid Middle East Tensions, Market Watches for News-Driven Reactions
The sudden escalation in the Middle East triggered a gap-up in gold, lifting the risk premium, though the sustainability of buying pressure remains uncertain. Traders should monitor developments in diplomatic talks and the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, while managing risk and position sizing carefully.
AI Disruption Fear Slams IBM: Claude Code Challenges Profit Model
On February 23, IBM’s stock plummeted more than 13% in a single day. The market is concerned that Anthropic’s Claude Code tool could disrupt traditional COBOL service revenue, potentially triggering a broader reassessment of profitability across the tech sector.
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1. Data for the Pepperstone Group, correct as at October 2025.